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	<title>Comments on: Speed cameras don&#8217;t cause road casualties. Tell your friends.</title>
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	<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218</link>
	<description>(it's not as boffiny as you think, probably won't give you cancer, and almost certainly isn't the end of the world unless you continue to remain hysterical)</description>
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		<title>By: David Barnett</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-149</link>
		<dc:creator>David Barnett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Sep 2011 01:15:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-149</guid>
		<description>Michael, just because the meta-analysis is peer-reviewed, does not mean that the evidence found is strong enough to justify the cameras against the serious societal side effects.

Our civilization depends on respect for the rule of law. Obedience to a law must be seen as right by the vast majority. There has to be a sense of trust that the rule is right and enforced fairly and with human common sense. The cameras violate that trust in several ways and dangerously weaken respect for law in general.

In terms of usefulness, the cameras provide no feedback until weeks after the event.  This is especially true at times when the road is empty of other cars, whose slowing may alert you to your speed. In fact, under road conditions conducive to going at higher speeds, constant monitoring of the speedometer is needed to keep below a limit which is set arbitrarily low.

One must use common sense when driving. Just because that country road has a sign with an oblique line does not mean it is safe to drive at 60 mph on it. I was recently on such lane with stretches where 30 mph seemed too fast for safety.

There is also a cry-wolf effect of blanket limits. As you know, there are stretches of road where normal speed cues are deceptive, and where a low speed limit is a very helpful advisory.  The problem is that one does not know what is real and what is arbitrary. So genuine safety signs get ignored.

Much more useful than cameras are those signs which tell you your speed as you approach. I would like to see them at all deceptive black spots.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael, just because the meta-analysis is peer-reviewed, does not mean that the evidence found is strong enough to justify the cameras against the serious societal side effects.</p>
<p>Our civilization depends on respect for the rule of law. Obedience to a law must be seen as right by the vast majority. There has to be a sense of trust that the rule is right and enforced fairly and with human common sense. The cameras violate that trust in several ways and dangerously weaken respect for law in general.</p>
<p>In terms of usefulness, the cameras provide no feedback until weeks after the event.  This is especially true at times when the road is empty of other cars, whose slowing may alert you to your speed. In fact, under road conditions conducive to going at higher speeds, constant monitoring of the speedometer is needed to keep below a limit which is set arbitrarily low.</p>
<p>One must use common sense when driving. Just because that country road has a sign with an oblique line does not mean it is safe to drive at 60 mph on it. I was recently on such lane with stretches where 30 mph seemed too fast for safety.</p>
<p>There is also a cry-wolf effect of blanket limits. As you know, there are stretches of road where normal speed cues are deceptive, and where a low speed limit is a very helpful advisory.  The problem is that one does not know what is real and what is arbitrary. So genuine safety signs get ignored.</p>
<p>Much more useful than cameras are those signs which tell you your speed as you approach. I would like to see them at all deceptive black spots.</p>
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		<title>By: michaelgrayer</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-148</link>
		<dc:creator>michaelgrayer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Sep 2011 11:04:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-148</guid>
		<description>1. I have been through this before. As demonstrated by the analysis I conducted in the follow-up, the test that the TPA used to detect points of discontinuity in the linear trend, the Chow Test, detects them in that data all over the place. What&#039;s so special about 1990 that distinguishes it from the others? There are also historical inaccuracies in their explanation: while speed cameras were introduced &quot;in the early 1990s&quot; (which is &lt;em&gt;after&lt;/em&gt; 1990 by the way), they were not in widespread use until later. I remain unconvinced that the Chow Test shows us anything particularly special in 1990, and even less convinced by the TPA&#039;s highly tenuous &lt;em&gt;post hoc&lt;/em&gt; explanation.

2. Are you seriously suggesting that the TPA&#039;s tenuous post-hoc analysis (complete with revisionist history) trumps a peer-reviewed BMJ-published meta-analysis of all the data collected in peer-reviewed studies on the effects of the introduction of speed cameras on accident rates. Come on.

3. Yes, I am aware that people slow down for speed cameras, but while it may be a little annoying or look a bit weird, I&#039;m not aware that such behaviour has been the cause of any accidents. Are you?

People driving at 55mph in a 30mph zone - frequently. I know much of London&#039;s traffic doesn&#039;t get above about 10 during the daytime but crossing the road at night and in rural residential areas, it&#039;s a whole different story. Besides, in all honesty, I totally agree with you that tailgating is dangerous, but that is completely irrelevant to whether speeding is dangerous or not. Perhaps I should be clear: you compared minor speeding with major tailgating. I did the opposite to show you how ridiculous that comparison was.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. I have been through this before. As demonstrated by the analysis I conducted in the follow-up, the test that the TPA used to detect points of discontinuity in the linear trend, the Chow Test, detects them in that data all over the place. What&#8217;s so special about 1990 that distinguishes it from the others? There are also historical inaccuracies in their explanation: while speed cameras were introduced &#8220;in the early 1990s&#8221; (which is <em>after</em> 1990 by the way), they were not in widespread use until later. I remain unconvinced that the Chow Test shows us anything particularly special in 1990, and even less convinced by the TPA&#8217;s highly tenuous <em>post hoc</em> explanation.</p>
<p>2. Are you seriously suggesting that the TPA&#8217;s tenuous post-hoc analysis (complete with revisionist history) trumps a peer-reviewed BMJ-published meta-analysis of all the data collected in peer-reviewed studies on the effects of the introduction of speed cameras on accident rates. Come on.</p>
<p>3. Yes, I am aware that people slow down for speed cameras, but while it may be a little annoying or look a bit weird, I&#8217;m not aware that such behaviour has been the cause of any accidents. Are you?</p>
<p>People driving at 55mph in a 30mph zone &#8211; frequently. I know much of London&#8217;s traffic doesn&#8217;t get above about 10 during the daytime but crossing the road at night and in rural residential areas, it&#8217;s a whole different story. Besides, in all honesty, I totally agree with you that tailgating is dangerous, but that is completely irrelevant to whether speeding is dangerous or not. Perhaps I should be clear: you compared minor speeding with major tailgating. I did the opposite to show you how ridiculous that comparison was.</p>
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		<title>By: David Barnett</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-147</link>
		<dc:creator>David Barnett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Sep 2011 01:49:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-147</guid>
		<description>1. The point is not the extrapolation itself so much as the clear inflexion which the extrapolation line highlights. That inflexion demands explanation. It may be just statistical noise on the downward trend, but the TPA offered serious arguments for its significance.

2. The meta-analysis linked to by Adam looks like statistical noise. Not very convincing. Re citation, the TPA is using real data. However you mash it, there is no evidence there that the cameras help.

3. I see the slowing at certain GATSOs when I am driving. Anecdotal, yes, but, for example, it happens almost every time on the Hendon Way just before Brent Cross going north. 

P.S. Tailgating of 2 or 3 car lengths at 70 miles an hour is common enough to be observed routinely. How often do you see drivers going at 55 in a 30 mph residential zone?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. The point is not the extrapolation itself so much as the clear inflexion which the extrapolation line highlights. That inflexion demands explanation. It may be just statistical noise on the downward trend, but the TPA offered serious arguments for its significance.</p>
<p>2. The meta-analysis linked to by Adam looks like statistical noise. Not very convincing. Re citation, the TPA is using real data. However you mash it, there is no evidence there that the cameras help.</p>
<p>3. I see the slowing at certain GATSOs when I am driving. Anecdotal, yes, but, for example, it happens almost every time on the Hendon Way just before Brent Cross going north. </p>
<p>P.S. Tailgating of 2 or 3 car lengths at 70 miles an hour is common enough to be observed routinely. How often do you see drivers going at 55 in a 30 mph residential zone?</p>
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		<title>By: michaelgrayer</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-145</link>
		<dc:creator>michaelgrayer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Sep 2011 15:40:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-145</guid>
		<description>1. &quot;Negative deaths&quot; is not the only reason why the TPA&#039;s linear-extrapolation-after-the-conveniently-placed-red-line model is inappropriate. It&#039;s arguably the funniest, but just saying that &quot;The TPA did not claim that the extrapolation would continue indefinitely&quot; is not enough to validate their model.

2. Citation needed. The systematic review that Adam linked to above does not support your argument.

3. Again, citation needed. Has that ever, y&#039;know, actually happened? And is that really more dangerous than driving too fast in a built up area and mowing down pedestrians?

P.S. When I am driving, people driving at 55mph in a 30mph zone scare the crap out of me --- much more dangerous than being an inch or two closer than an arbitrary safe distance. See, I can do hyperbole too!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. &#8220;Negative deaths&#8221; is not the only reason why the TPA&#8217;s linear-extrapolation-after-the-conveniently-placed-red-line model is inappropriate. It&#8217;s arguably the funniest, but just saying that &#8220;The TPA did not claim that the extrapolation would continue indefinitely&#8221; is not enough to validate their model.</p>
<p>2. Citation needed. The systematic review that Adam linked to above does not support your argument.</p>
<p>3. Again, citation needed. Has that ever, y&#8217;know, actually happened? And is that really more dangerous than driving too fast in a built up area and mowing down pedestrians?</p>
<p>P.S. When I am driving, people driving at 55mph in a 30mph zone scare the crap out of me &#8212; much more dangerous than being an inch or two closer than an arbitrary safe distance. See, I can do hyperbole too!</p>
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		<title>By: David Bernett</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-144</link>
		<dc:creator>David Bernett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Sep 2011 14:34:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-144</guid>
		<description>1. The TPA did not claim that the extrapolation would continue indefinitely so the &quot;negative deaths&quot; argument is irrelevant.

2. The statistics in no way support the idea that speed cameras help.

3. If you want a mechanism for why the cameras may be causing accidents, just see driver behaviour around known speed camera sites where fixation on speed causes sudden slowing.

A good driver will judge his speed according to road conditions - not the speedometer.  There are deceptive places for which a recommended speed with an immediate feedback sigh is helpful.

But burying your nose in the dashboard for fear of getting a ticket is dangerous.

P.S. When I am driving, tailgaters scare the crap out of me - much more dangerous than being a little over an arbitrary speed limit.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. The TPA did not claim that the extrapolation would continue indefinitely so the &#8220;negative deaths&#8221; argument is irrelevant.</p>
<p>2. The statistics in no way support the idea that speed cameras help.</p>
<p>3. If you want a mechanism for why the cameras may be causing accidents, just see driver behaviour around known speed camera sites where fixation on speed causes sudden slowing.</p>
<p>A good driver will judge his speed according to road conditions &#8211; not the speedometer.  There are deceptive places for which a recommended speed with an immediate feedback sigh is helpful.</p>
<p>But burying your nose in the dashboard for fear of getting a ticket is dangerous.</p>
<p>P.S. When I am driving, tailgaters scare the crap out of me &#8211; much more dangerous than being a little over an arbitrary speed limit.</p>
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		<title>By: Is @mjhsinclair planning on creating a Zombie army or road traffic victims? &#171; Left Outside</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-141</link>
		<dc:creator>Is @mjhsinclair planning on creating a Zombie army or road traffic victims? &#171; Left Outside</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 May 2011 10:00:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-141</guid>
		<description>[...] Michael points out the statistical check is biased by data selection and&#8230; &#8230;you could pretty much break [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Michael points out the statistical check is biased by data selection and&#8230; &#8230;you could pretty much break [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Allan</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-130</link>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Sep 2010 20:43:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-130</guid>
		<description>The idea that speed cameras could somehow be responsible for the slow-down in the rate of decrease of road casualties is totally absurd. And illogical. Apart from which, and as already pointed out, there were but a few dozen cameras in operation by the mid-nineties, and according to The Times, there were only around 500 in operation by 1999.

I would suggest that the advent of the boy-racer phenomenon in the mid-nineties and the ever-increasing ownership and use of mobile phones whilst diving since the mid-late nineties had a lot to do with the slowdown, as did the massive rise in migrants from Eastern European countries and Africa since 1997 where driving standards are generally a lot lower, along with the big rise in motorbike ownership (and particularly powerful motorbikes) that happened during the period from 1996 to 2004, and the corresponding number of motorcyclist fatalities and injuries.

There were also massive cuts in traffic police numbers from around 16,500 in 1987/88 to around 7,500 in 1996/97 (under the Tories) and about an additional 1,000 since then (under New Labour). It&#039;s funny how none of the anti-camera newspapers ever mentioned to their millions of readers - either at the time the cuts were taking place or since - about the more than 50% cuts that took place under the Tories, but they have been ranting on about &quot;the 11% cut in traffic police&quot; since 1997 over and over again for the past six years. The reality is of course that but for speed cameras, we wouldn&#039;t have heard a peep out of them about the 11% cut!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The idea that speed cameras could somehow be responsible for the slow-down in the rate of decrease of road casualties is totally absurd. And illogical. Apart from which, and as already pointed out, there were but a few dozen cameras in operation by the mid-nineties, and according to The Times, there were only around 500 in operation by 1999.</p>
<p>I would suggest that the advent of the boy-racer phenomenon in the mid-nineties and the ever-increasing ownership and use of mobile phones whilst diving since the mid-late nineties had a lot to do with the slowdown, as did the massive rise in migrants from Eastern European countries and Africa since 1997 where driving standards are generally a lot lower, along with the big rise in motorbike ownership (and particularly powerful motorbikes) that happened during the period from 1996 to 2004, and the corresponding number of motorcyclist fatalities and injuries.</p>
<p>There were also massive cuts in traffic police numbers from around 16,500 in 1987/88 to around 7,500 in 1996/97 (under the Tories) and about an additional 1,000 since then (under New Labour). It&#8217;s funny how none of the anti-camera newspapers ever mentioned to their millions of readers &#8211; either at the time the cuts were taking place or since &#8211; about the more than 50% cuts that took place under the Tories, but they have been ranting on about &#8220;the 11% cut in traffic police&#8221; since 1997 over and over again for the past six years. The reality is of course that but for speed cameras, we wouldn&#8217;t have heard a peep out of them about the 11% cut!</p>
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		<title>By: Jim</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-129</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Aug 2010 13:31:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-129</guid>
		<description>Great post, but I think if anything you&#039;re too soft on the TPA, as they seem to have deliberately foregone any semblance of real time series analysis. While speed cameras may have been &#039;introduced&#039; in 1992, the real growth in their numbers came in the first half of the 2000s, exactly when the casualties trend started falling sharply again! See figures here: http://bit.ly/ajZkEf</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great post, but I think if anything you&#8217;re too soft on the TPA, as they seem to have deliberately foregone any semblance of real time series analysis. While speed cameras may have been &#8216;introduced&#8217; in 1992, the real growth in their numbers came in the first half of the 2000s, exactly when the casualties trend started falling sharply again! See figures here: <a href="http://bit.ly/ajZkEf" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/ajZkEf</a></p>
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		<title>By: Neuroskeptic</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-128</link>
		<dc:creator>Neuroskeptic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Aug 2010 17:05:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-128</guid>
		<description>Great work.

I read that Oxford has just nixed all their speed cameras too. Not sure why.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great work.</p>
<p>I read that Oxford has just nixed all their speed cameras too. Not sure why.</p>
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		<title>By: michaelgrayer</title>
		<link>http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218&#038;cpage=1#comment-127</link>
		<dc:creator>michaelgrayer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Jul 2010 16:13:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nontoxic.org.uk/?p=218#comment-127</guid>
		<description>Thank you for your comment. Your first point is absolutely valid, and is a valid concern about existing epidemiological evidence. This point is raised in the systematic review from the BMJ that Adam linked to above. However, that doesn&#039;t detract from the point that this particular piece of analysis overstates the case against speed cameras using an unrealistic regression and a very tenuous &lt;em&gt;post hoc&lt;/em&gt; hypothesis. Even &quot;before/after&quot; studies are marginally better than this.

The data, by the way, do include persons injured/killed regardless of whether they were passengers, cyclists, pedestrians, or whoever.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for your comment. Your first point is absolutely valid, and is a valid concern about existing epidemiological evidence. This point is raised in the systematic review from the BMJ that Adam linked to above. However, that doesn&#8217;t detract from the point that this particular piece of analysis overstates the case against speed cameras using an unrealistic regression and a very tenuous <em>post hoc</em> hypothesis. Even &#8220;before/after&#8221; studies are marginally better than this.</p>
<p>The data, by the way, do include persons injured/killed regardless of whether they were passengers, cyclists, pedestrians, or whoever.</p>
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